CUNA’s Economic and CU Forecast Shows Strong Economy in 2019

Credit unions will continue to benefit from the relatively strong economy in 2019, but credit union performance could revert toward longer-term trends in coming months, according to the latest CUNA Economic and Credit Union Forecast for January 2019.

The forecast examines the overall state of the U.S. economy, including changes from previous forecasts. It also anticipates credit union trends through the end of the previous quarter and what is expected through the end of 2019.

Highlights of the credit union forecast include:

  • Credit union memberships will end 2018 up 4.4%, but membership growth will slow to 3.5% in 2019;
  • Credit union delinquency rates will reach 0.65% in 2018 and 0.75% by the end of 2019; and
  • Credit union ROA will finish 2018 at 0.95% but fall to 0.85% by the end of 2019.

Other highlights of the economic forecast include:

  • Headline inflation (CPI) fell to just below 2.00% in the second and third quarters of 2018, and CUNA expects 2018 CPI inflation to reach 2.10% for the year, and 2.25% in 2019; and
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 2.69% – from a high of 3.24% – by the end of 2018, and CUNA expects the 10-year Treasury Rate to rise to 3.00% by the end of 2019.